Spatial - Temporal Epidemiological Characteristics of Tuberculosis in Shandong Province , China in 2011 - 2015

Objectives: To explore spatial-temporal epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in Shandong province, China in 2011 2015, and to provide technical suggestions to improve future control interventions. Methods: Notification Statistics of active TB and smear positive TB in Shandong in 2011 2015 were collected and imported into Geographic Information System (GIS), and global autocorrelation statistics (Moran’s I) and local autocorrelation statistics (Getis-Ord G) were employed to analyze the spatial aggregation of TB notification. Then SaTScan was used to explore spatial-temporal aggregation of TB notification at county level. Results: Notification data of active TB and smear positive TB both showed a declining trend in 2011 2015, and both had a spatial aggregation (P < 0.05). Hot spots of active TB were mainly in northwest (Liaocheng prefecture), south central (Linyi prefecture), and southeast (Qingdao prefecture) of Shandong; while hot spots of smear positive TB were mainly in northwest (Liaocheng prefecture), north central (Dezhou prefecture) , and southeast (Qingdao prefecture). The hot spots of spatial aggregation coincided with the primary and secondary spatialtemporal aggregation areas. Conclusion: Notification data of active TB and smear positive TB in 2011 2015 had a spatial aggregation. Northwest and southeast parts of Shandong had higher TB burden as well as higher risks for TB transmission, while south central part of Shandong had higher TB burden only.